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South Shields W vs Fylde W — FA Women's Cup 2019

South Shields W
South Shields W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Fylde W
Fylde W
10/26/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Shields W14%
×Draw13%
Fylde W72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Shields W
1.75
Fylde W
3.81

Fylde W creates 118% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

South Shields W
1.00
Fylde W
2.38

allows per match

South Shields W
5.25
Fylde W
2.50

finishing

South Shields W+0.00on par
Fylde W+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields W ↓

Fylde W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

South Shields W or draw
28%
South Shields W or Fylde W
87%
Draw or Fylde W
86%

Winning margin

South Shields W wins by 2+
6%
Fylde W wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

South Shields W 1+ goals
83%
South Shields W 2+ goals
52%
South Shields W 3+ goals
25%
Fylde W 1+ goals
98%
Fylde W 2+ goals
88%
Fylde W 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

South Shields W (draw refunded)
17%
Fylde W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

Fylde W away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields W attack 1.00 + Fylde W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fylde W attack 2.38 + South Shields W defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 3.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

South Shields W scores more
14%
level
13%
Fylde W scores more
72%

Fylde W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fylde W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: South Shields W 0–5 Fylde W

Fylde W beat South Shields W 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on October 26, 2025.