South Shields 3–1 Worksop Town: Result & Stats

South Shields

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Worksop Town

L. Wheeldon 88'

P. Blackett 47', 44'

J. Wilde 45'

2/24/2026

League #50 · North - 351st Cloud Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Shields70%

×Draw17%

Worksop Town13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South ShieldsExpected goals in this matchWorksop Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.95

South Shields

2.45

Worksop Town

0.95

South Shields creates 158% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 3 away

1.90

creates per match

1.00

0.90

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

South Shields

1.90

Worksop Town

1.00

allows per match

South Shields

0.90

Worksop Town

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par

Worksop Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Worksop Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

South Shields or draw

87%

South Shields or Worksop Town

83%

Draw or Worksop Town

30%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+

47%

Worksop Town wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals

91%

South Shields 2+ goals

70%

South Shields 3+ goals

44%

Worksop Town 1+ goals

61%

Worksop Town 2+ goals

25%

Worksop Town 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)

84%

Worksop Town (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Worksop Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + Worksop Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.45

Worksop Town attack 1.00 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

South Shields scores more

70%

level

17%

Worksop Town scores more

13%

South Shields at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

45'

47'

88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff