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South Shields vs Macclesfield — League #50 2026

South Shields
South Shields
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Macclesfield
Macclesfield
S. Finch 63'
S. McGurk 31', 2'
P. Blackett 5'
P. Dawson 25'
4/14/2026League #50League #50 · North - 311st Cloud Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Shields49%
×Draw23%
Macclesfield28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Shields
1.78
Macclesfield
1.28

South Shields creates 39% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 3 away

creates per match

South Shields
1.90
Macclesfield
1.67

allows per match

South Shields
0.90
Macclesfield
1.67

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par
Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Macclesfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

South Shields or draw
72%
South Shields or Macclesfield
77%
Draw or Macclesfield
51%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+
27%
Macclesfield wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals
83%
South Shields 2+ goals
53%
South Shields 3+ goals
26%
Macclesfield 1+ goals
72%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
37%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)
64%
Macclesfield (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + Macclesfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Macclesfield attack 1.67 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

South Shields scores more
49%
level
23%
Macclesfield scores more
28%

South Shields at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
S. McGurk
5'
P. Blackett
25'
P. Dawson
31'
S. McGurk
63'
S. Finch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #50: South Shields 4–1 Macclesfield

South Shields beat Macclesfield 4-1 in League #50 on April 14, 2026.

Goals: S. McGurk (2', 31'), P. Blackett (5'), P. Dawson (25'), S. Finch (63').

The match was played at 1st Cloud Arena in South Shields, Tyne and Wear.