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South Shields vs Harrogate Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

South Shields
South Shields
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
A. Campbell 64'
B. Hobson 67'
C. Heffernan 46'
7/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Shields13%
×Draw19%
Harrogate Town68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Shields
0.85
Harrogate Town
2.20

Harrogate Town creates 159% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

South Shields
1.00
Harrogate Town
2.14

allows per match

South Shields
2.25
Harrogate Town
0.71

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par
Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Harrogate Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–212%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

South Shields or draw
32%
South Shields or Harrogate Town
81%
Draw or Harrogate Town
87%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+
4%
Harrogate Town wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals
57%
South Shields 2+ goals
21%
South Shields 3+ goals
5%
Harrogate Town 1+ goals
89%
Harrogate Town 2+ goals
64%
Harrogate Town 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)
16%
Harrogate Town (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.00 + Harrogate Town defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Harrogate Town attack 2.14 + South Shields defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

South Shields scores more
13%
level
19%
Harrogate Town scores more
68%

Harrogate Town at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Harrogate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
C. Heffernan
64'
A. Campbell
67'
B. Hobson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: South Shields 1–2 Harrogate Town

Harrogate Town beat South Shields 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 21, 2026.

Goals: C. Heffernan (46'), A. Campbell (64'), B. Hobson (67').