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South Shields vs Chorley — League #50 2026

South Shields
South Shields
Preview
14:00
Chorley
Chorley
8/15/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 2
Big match
59%
South Shields
model favours
59%21%20%

Chorley score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

South Shields59%
×Draw21%
Chorley20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Shields
2.01
Chorley
1.07

South Shields creates 88% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

creates per match

South Shields
1.90
Chorley
1.25

allows per match

South Shields
0.90
Chorley
2.13

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par
Chorley+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Chorley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

South Shields or draw
80%
South Shields or Chorley
79%
Draw or Chorley
41%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+
35%
Chorley wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals
87%
South Shields 2+ goals
59%
South Shields 3+ goals
32%
Chorley 1+ goals
66%
Chorley 2+ goals
29%
Chorley 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)
75%
Chorley (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Chorley away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + Chorley defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.01

Chorley attack 1.25 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

South Shields scores more
59%
level
21%
Chorley scores more
20%

South Shields at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • South Shields score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both teams score in 80% of Chorley’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings
  • South Shields sit 1, Chorley 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Shields
LDLWL
Chorley
DLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Shields face Chorley (League #50)

League #50 returns with South Shields hosting Chorley. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.