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Chorley vs South Shields — League #50 2026

Chorley
Chorley
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
South Shields
South Shields
J. Sampson 16'
S. Finch 12'
3/10/2026League #50League #50 · North - 38Victory Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chorley43%
×Draw23%
South Shields34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chorley
1.73
South Shields
1.53

Chorley creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

creates per match

Chorley
2.00
South Shields
1.50

allows per match

Chorley
1.56
South Shields
1.46

finishing

Chorley+0.00on par
South Shields+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chorley ↓

South Shields →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chorley or draw
66%
Chorley or South Shields
77%
Draw or South Shields
57%

Winning margin

Chorley wins by 2+
22%
South Shields wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chorley 1+ goals
82%
Chorley 2+ goals
52%
Chorley 3+ goals
25%
South Shields 1+ goals
78%
South Shields 2+ goals
45%
South Shields 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chorley (draw refunded)
55%
South Shields (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chorley at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

South Shields away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chorley attack 2.00 + South Shields defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

South Shields attack 1.50 + Chorley defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chorley scores more
43%
level
23%
South Shields scores more
34%

Chorley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chorley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
S. Finch
16'
J. Sampson
90+4'
M. Calveley
90+4'
M. Calveley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #50: Chorley 1–1 South Shields

Chorley and South Shields drew 1-1 in League #50 on March 10, 2026.

Goals: S. Finch (12'), J. Sampson (16').

The match was played at Victory Park in Chorley.