Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

South Shields vs Alfreton Town — League #50 2026

South Shields
South Shields
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alfreton Town
Alfreton Town
D. Dodds 72'
P. Blackett 59'
L. Wheeldon 39'
3/28/2026League #50League #50 · North - 411st Cloud Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

South Shields60%
×Draw21%
Alfreton Town19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Shields
2.08
Alfreton Town
1.07

South Shields creates 94% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

creates per match

South Shields
1.90
Alfreton Town
1.25

allows per match

South Shields
0.90
Alfreton Town
2.25

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par
Alfreton Town+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

Alfreton Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

South Shields or draw
81%
South Shields or Alfreton Town
79%
Draw or Alfreton Town
40%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+
37%
Alfreton Town wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals
87%
South Shields 2+ goals
61%
South Shields 3+ goals
34%
Alfreton Town 1+ goals
66%
Alfreton Town 2+ goals
29%
Alfreton Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)
76%
Alfreton Town (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Alfreton Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + Alfreton Town defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.08

Alfreton Town attack 1.25 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

South Shields scores more
60%
level
21%
Alfreton Town scores more
19%

South Shields at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
L. Wheeldon
59'
P. Blackett
72'
D. Dodds

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Shields 3 – 0 Alfreton Town

South Shields beat Alfreton Town 3-0 in League #50 on March 28, 2026.

Goals: L. Wheeldon (39'), P. Blackett (59'), D. Dodds (72').

The match was played at 1st Cloud Arena in South Shields, Tyne and Wear.