South Shields 2–2 AFC Telford United

South Shields

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Telford United

P. Blackett 84'

S. Finch 44'

A. George 86'

R. Walker 67'

2/21/2026

League #50 · North - 341st Cloud Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Shields57%

×Draw23%

AFC Telford United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South ShieldsExpected goals in this matchAFC Telford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.95

South Shields

1.78

AFC Telford United

0.95

South Shields creates 87% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 3 away

1.90

creates per match

1.00

0.90

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

South Shields

1.90

AFC Telford United

1.00

allows per match

South Shields

0.90

AFC Telford United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par

AFC Telford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

AFC Telford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

South Shields or draw

80%

South Shields or AFC Telford United

77%

Draw or AFC Telford United

43%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+

32%

AFC Telford United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals

83%

South Shields 2+ goals

53%

South Shields 3+ goals

26%

AFC Telford United 1+ goals

61%

AFC Telford United 2+ goals

25%

AFC Telford United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)

74%

AFC Telford United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

AFC Telford United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + AFC Telford United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

AFC Telford United attack 1.00 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

South Shields scores more

57%

level

23%

AFC Telford United scores more

20%

South Shields at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

67'

84'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff