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South Shields vs AFC Fylde — League #50 2026

South Shields
South Shields
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde
S. McGurk 54'
P. Blackett 52'
D. Ormerod 87'
3/3/2026League #50League #50 · North - 291st Cloud Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Shields45%
×Draw23%
AFC Fylde32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Shields
1.78
AFC Fylde
1.45

South Shields creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 3 away

creates per match

South Shields
1.90
AFC Fylde
2.00

allows per match

South Shields
0.90
AFC Fylde
1.67

finishing

South Shields+0.00on par
AFC Fylde+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields ↓

AFC Fylde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

South Shields or draw
68%
South Shields or AFC Fylde
77%
Draw or AFC Fylde
55%

Winning margin

South Shields wins by 2+
24%
AFC Fylde wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

South Shields 1+ goals
83%
South Shields 2+ goals
53%
South Shields 3+ goals
26%
AFC Fylde 1+ goals
77%
AFC Fylde 2+ goals
42%
AFC Fylde 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

South Shields (draw refunded)
59%
AFC Fylde (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Shields at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

AFC Fylde away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Shields attack 1.90 + AFC Fylde defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

AFC Fylde attack 2.00 + South Shields defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

South Shields scores more
45%
level
23%
AFC Fylde scores more
32%

South Shields at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
P. Blackett
54'
S. McGurk
87'
D. Ormerod

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #50: South Shields 2–1 AFC Fylde

South Shields beat AFC Fylde 2-1 in League #50 on March 3, 2026.

Goals: P. Blackett (52'), S. McGurk (54'), D. Ormerod (87').

The match was played at 1st Cloud Arena in South Shields, Tyne and Wear.