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South Melbourne vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

South Melbourne
South Melbourne
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
5/11/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 13Lakeside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

South Melbourne34%
×Draw24%
Oakleigh Cannons42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Melbourne
1.39
Oakleigh Cannons
1.57

Oakleigh Cannons creates 13% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 87 away

creates per match

South Melbourne
1.67
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

South Melbourne
1.29
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

South Melbourne+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Melbourne ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

South Melbourne or draw
58%
South Melbourne or Oakleigh Cannons
76%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
66%

Winning margin

South Melbourne wins by 2+
15%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

South Melbourne 1+ goals
75%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
40%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
16%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
79%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
46%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

South Melbourne (draw refunded)
45%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Melbourne at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Melbourne attack 1.67 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + South Melbourne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

South Melbourne scores more
34%
level
24%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
42%

Oakleigh Cannons at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: South Melbourne 1–2 Oakleigh Cannons

Oakleigh Cannons beat South Melbourne 2-1 in Victoria NPL on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Lakeside Stadium in Melbourne.