South Melbourne 1–0 Melbourne Knights

South Melbourne

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Melbourne Knights

2/8/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 1Lakeside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

South Melbourne50%

×Draw23%

Melbourne Knights27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South MelbourneExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.29

South Melbourne

1.81

Melbourne Knights

1.29

South Melbourne creates 40% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 78 away

1.66

creates per match

1.29

1.28

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

South Melbourne

1.66

Melbourne Knights

1.29

allows per match

South Melbourne

1.28

Melbourne Knights

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Melbourne+0.00on par

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Melbourne ↓

Melbourne Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

South Melbourne or draw

73%

South Melbourne or Melbourne Knights

77%

Draw or Melbourne Knights

50%

Winning margin

South Melbourne wins by 2+

27%

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

South Melbourne 1+ goals

84%

South Melbourne 2+ goals

54%

South Melbourne 3+ goals

27%

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals

72%

Melbourne Knights 2+ goals

37%

Melbourne Knights 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

South Melbourne (draw refunded)

64%

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Melbourne at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.96 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Melbourne attack 1.66 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Melbourne Knights attack 1.29 + South Melbourne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

South Melbourne scores more

50%

level

23%

Melbourne Knights scores more

27%

South Melbourne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff