South Melbourne 0–3 Melbourne City: Result & Stats

South Melbourne

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Melbourne City

11/12/2021

Australia Cup · Round of 32Lakeside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Melbourne11%

×Draw23%

Melbourne City66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South MelbourneExpected goals in this matchMelbourne City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.54

1.71

South Melbourne

0.54

Melbourne City

1.71

Melbourne City creates 217% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.25

creates per match

1.67

1.75

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

South Melbourne

0.25

Melbourne City

1.67

allows per match

South Melbourne

1.75

Melbourne City

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Melbourne+0.00on par

Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Melbourne ↓

Melbourne City →

0–011%

0–118%

0–215%

0–39%

0–44%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

South Melbourne or draw

34%

South Melbourne or Melbourne City

77%

Draw or Melbourne City

89%

Winning margin

South Melbourne wins by 2+

Melbourne City wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

South Melbourne 1+ goals

42%

South Melbourne 2+ goals

10%

South Melbourne 3+ goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals

82%

Melbourne City 2+ goals

51%

Melbourne City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

South Melbourne (draw refunded)

15%

Melbourne City (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

South Melbourne at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

South Melbourne attack 0.25 + Melbourne City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.54

Melbourne City attack 1.67 + South Melbourne defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

South Melbourne scores more

11%

level

23%

Melbourne City scores more

66%

Melbourne City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff