South Melbourne 0–3 Auckland: Result & Stats

South Melbourne

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Auckland

8/13/2025

Australia Cup · Round of 16Lakeside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Melbourne7%

×Draw18%

Auckland75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South MelbourneExpected goals in this matchAuckland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.46

2.04

South Melbourne

0.46

Auckland

2.04

Auckland creates 343% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.25

creates per match

2.33

1.75

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

South Melbourne

0.25

Auckland

2.33

allows per match

South Melbourne

1.75

Auckland

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Melbourne+0.00on par

Auckland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Melbourne ↓

Auckland →

0–08%

0–117%

0–217%

0–312%

0–46%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

South Melbourne or draw

25%

South Melbourne or Auckland

82%

Draw or Auckland

93%

Winning margin

South Melbourne wins by 2+

Auckland wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

South Melbourne 1+ goals

37%

South Melbourne 2+ goals

South Melbourne 3+ goals

Auckland 1+ goals

87%

Auckland 2+ goals

60%

Auckland 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

South Melbourne (draw refunded)

Auckland (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

South Melbourne at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Auckland away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

South Melbourne attack 0.25 + Auckland defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.46

Auckland attack 2.33 + South Melbourne defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

South Melbourne scores more

level

18%

Auckland scores more

75%

Auckland at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff