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South Korea W vs Vietnam W — Friendlies Women 2026

South Korea W
South Korea W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vietnam W
Vietnam W
Lee Geum-Min 66'
Kang Chae-Rim 54'
Choe Yu-Ri 38'
4/9/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 1Goyang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

South Korea W84%
×Draw11%
Vietnam W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Korea W
2.82
Vietnam W
0.51

South Korea W creates 453% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

South Korea W
2.20
Vietnam W
0.29

allows per match

South Korea W
0.73
Vietnam W
3.43

finishing

South Korea W+0.00on par
Vietnam W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Korea W ↓

Vietnam W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

South Korea W or draw
96%
South Korea W or Vietnam W
89%
Draw or Vietnam W
16%

Winning margin

South Korea W wins by 2+
65%
Vietnam W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

South Korea W 1+ goals
94%
South Korea W 2+ goals
77%
South Korea W 3+ goals
52%
Vietnam W 1+ goals
40%
Vietnam W 2+ goals
9%
Vietnam W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

South Korea W (draw refunded)
95%
Vietnam W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Korea W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Vietnam W away — creates 0.29, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Korea W attack 2.20 + Vietnam W defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.82

Vietnam W attack 0.29 + South Korea W defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

South Korea W scores more
84%
level
11%
Vietnam W scores more
4%

South Korea W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "South Korea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Choe Yu-Ri
42'
T. Tran Thi← T. Tran Thi
46'
Yoon Young-Geul← Yoon Young-Geul
54'
Kang Chae-Rim
58'
Nguyen Thi Van← Nguyen Thi Van
66'
Lee Geum-Min
74'
T. Tran Thi← T. Tran Thi
83'
B. Chau← B. Chau

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Korea W vs Vietnam W

South Korea W beat Vietnam W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on April 9, 2022.

Goals: Choe Yu-Ri (38'), Kang Chae-Rim (54'), Lee Geum-Min (66').

The match was played at Goyang Stadium in Goyang.