South Korea W 1–0 Jamaica W: Result & Stats

South Korea W

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jamaica W

Choe Yu-Ri 13'

9/3/2022

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Hwaseong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

South Korea W73%

×Draw17%

Jamaica W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Korea WExpected goals in this matchJamaica W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.69

South Korea W

2.28

Jamaica W

0.69

South Korea W creates 230% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

2.20

creates per match

0.65

0.73

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

South Korea W

2.20

Jamaica W

0.65

allows per match

South Korea W

0.73

Jamaica W

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Korea W+0.00on par

Jamaica W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Korea W ↓

Jamaica W →

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

South Korea W or draw

90%

South Korea W or Jamaica W

83%

Draw or Jamaica W

27%

Winning margin

South Korea W wins by 2+

49%

Jamaica W wins by 2+

Team goals

South Korea W 1+ goals

90%

South Korea W 2+ goals

66%

South Korea W 3+ goals

39%

Jamaica W 1+ goals

50%

Jamaica W 2+ goals

15%

Jamaica W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

South Korea W (draw refunded)

88%

Jamaica W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

South Korea W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Jamaica W away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

South Korea W attack 2.20 + Jamaica W defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.28

Jamaica W attack 0.65 + South Korea W defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

South Korea W scores more

73%

level

17%

Jamaica W scores more

10%

South Korea W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "South Korea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Choe Yu-Ri

South

Jamaica

⚽

Manager: C. Bell

South Korea W substitutes

19Hwa-Yeon9Eun-Sun25Ga-Ram12Seong-Mi6Yu-Jin5Chang8Yun-Ji15Min-Jung21Ji-soo17Ye-Eun14Eun-Ha22Yu-been1Young-Geul24Su-In

Manager: L. Donaldson

Jamaica W substitutes

22Grey13Brooks7Asher5Atkins3Sampson21Adamolekun24Hayles23Jamieson6Simmonds10Washington15Cameron8McCoy