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South Korea vs China — Asian Cup 2019

South Korea
South Korea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
China
China
Kim Min-Jae 51'
Hwang Ui-jo 14' (pen)
1/16/2019Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 3Al Nahyan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

South Korea43%
×Draw28%
China29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Korea
1.30
China
1.00

South Korea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

South Korea
1.80
China
1.00

allows per match

South Korea
1.00
China
0.80

finishing

South Korea+0.00on par
China+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Korea ↓

China →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

South Korea or draw
71%
South Korea or China
72%
Draw or China
57%

Winning margin

South Korea wins by 2+
20%
China wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

South Korea 1+ goals
73%
South Korea 2+ goals
37%
South Korea 3+ goals
14%
China 1+ goals
63%
China 2+ goals
26%
China 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

South Korea (draw refunded)
60%
China (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Korea at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

China away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Korea attack 1.80 + China defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.30

China attack 1.00 + South Korea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

South Korea scores more
43%
level
28%
China scores more
29%

South Korea at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "South Korea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Hwang Ui-joPenalty
20'
Xuri Zhao
21'
Chengdong Zhang
51'
Kim Min-Jae↳ Son Heung-Min
57'
Chi Zhongguo← Zheng Zhi
61'
Gao Lin← Wu Xi
70'
Ji Dong-Won← Hwang Ui-jo
74'
Yu Hanchao← Liu Yang
79'
Linpeng Zhang
81'
Ju Se-Jong← Lee Chung-Yong
89'
Koo Ja-Cheol← Son Heung-Min
90'
Lin Gao

Possession

58%South

Shots

12South

Statistics

SouthChina
Overview
58%Possession42%
12Total Shots4
7Corners4
7Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots4
7On Target1
5Off Target3
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls13
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: South Korea vs China

South Korea beat China 2-0 in Asian Cup on January 16, 2019.

Goals: Hwang Ui-jo (14' pen), Kim Min-Jae (51').

South Korea controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 4.

The match was played at Al Nahyan Stadium in Abu Dhabi.