South Korea 1–1 Bahrain: Result & Stats | Asian Cup

South Korea

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bahrain

1/22/2019

Asian Cup · Round of 16Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Korea46%

×Draw27%

Bahrain27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South KoreaExpected goals in this matchBahrain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.00

South Korea

1.40

Bahrain

1.00

South Korea creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

South Korea

1.80

Bahrain

1.00

allows per match

South Korea

1.00

Bahrain

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Korea+0.00on par

Bahrain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Korea ↓

Bahrain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

South Korea or draw

73%

South Korea or Bahrain

73%

Draw or Bahrain

54%

Winning margin

South Korea wins by 2+

22%

Bahrain wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

South Korea 1+ goals

75%

South Korea 2+ goals

41%

South Korea 3+ goals

17%

Bahrain 1+ goals

63%

Bahrain 2+ goals

26%

Bahrain 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

South Korea (draw refunded)

63%

Bahrain (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Korea at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Bahrain away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Korea attack 1.80 + Bahrain defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bahrain attack 1.00 + South Korea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

South Korea scores more

46%

level

27%

Bahrain scores more

27%

South Korea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "South Korea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff