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South Hobart vs Clarence Zebras — Tasmania NPL 2026

South Hobart
South Hobart
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Clarence Zebras
Clarence Zebras
3/23/2024Tasmania NPLTasmania NPL · Round 2Darcy Street Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

South Hobart68%
×Draw16%
Clarence Zebras16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Hobart
3.00
Clarence Zebras
1.44

South Hobart creates 108% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

South Hobart
3.26
Clarence Zebras
1.56

allows per match

South Hobart
1.32
Clarence Zebras
2.75

finishing

South Hobart+0.00on par
Clarence Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Hobart ↓

Clarence Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

South Hobart or draw
84%
South Hobart or Clarence Zebras
84%
Draw or Clarence Zebras
32%

Winning margin

South Hobart wins by 2+
48%
Clarence Zebras wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

South Hobart 1+ goals
95%
South Hobart 2+ goals
79%
South Hobart 3+ goals
56%
Clarence Zebras 1+ goals
76%
Clarence Zebras 2+ goals
42%
Clarence Zebras 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

South Hobart (draw refunded)
81%
Clarence Zebras (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Hobart at home — creates 3.26, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

Clarence Zebras away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.75 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Hobart attack 3.26 + Clarence Zebras defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.00

Clarence Zebras attack 1.56 + South Hobart defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

South Hobart scores more
68%
level
16%
Clarence Zebras scores more
16%

South Hobart at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "South Hobart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Hobart vs Clarence Zebras

South Hobart beat Clarence Zebras 3-1 in Tasmania NPL on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Darcy Street Ground in South Hobart.