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Clarence Zebras vs South Hobart — Tasmania NPL 2026

Clarence Zebras
Clarence Zebras
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 4
South Hobart
South Hobart
4/27/2025Tasmania NPLTasmania NPL · Round 5Wentworth Park 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Clarence Zebras17%
×Draw17%
South Hobart66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clarence Zebras
1.35
South Hobart
2.76

South Hobart creates 104% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 59 away

creates per match

Clarence Zebras
1.63
South Hobart
2.92

allows per match

Clarence Zebras
2.61
South Hobart
1.08

finishing

Clarence Zebras+0.00on par
South Hobart+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clarence Zebras ↓

South Hobart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Clarence Zebras or draw
34%
Clarence Zebras or South Hobart
83%
Draw or South Hobart
83%

Winning margin

Clarence Zebras wins by 2+
7%
South Hobart wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Clarence Zebras 1+ goals
74%
Clarence Zebras 2+ goals
39%
Clarence Zebras 3+ goals
15%
South Hobart 1+ goals
94%
South Hobart 2+ goals
76%
South Hobart 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Clarence Zebras (draw refunded)
20%
South Hobart (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clarence Zebras at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.61 · 57 matches

South Hobart away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clarence Zebras attack 1.63 + South Hobart defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

South Hobart attack 2.92 + Clarence Zebras defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Clarence Zebras scores more
17%
level
17%
South Hobart scores more
66%

South Hobart at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "South Hobart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clarence Zebras vs South Hobart

South Hobart beat Clarence Zebras 8-0 in Tasmania NPL on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Wentworth Park 2 in City of Clarence.