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South Hobart II vs South East Utd. U21 — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

South Hobart II
South Hobart II
FT
5 – 5
HT: 3 – 2
South East Utd. U21
South East Utd. U21
8/17/2025Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 19Darcy Street Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

South Hobart II42%
×Draw18%
South East Utd. U2141%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Hobart II
3.24
South East Utd. U21
3.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

creates per match

South Hobart II
4.00
South East Utd. U21
4.29

allows per match

South Hobart II
2.08
South East Utd. U21
2.48

finishing

South Hobart II+0.00on par
South East Utd. U21+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

92%Yes
  • Yes92
  • No8

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Hobart II ↓

South East Utd. U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–44%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
87%13%4.5
75%25%

Double chance

South Hobart II or draw
59%
South Hobart II or South East Utd. U21
82%
Draw or South East Utd. U21
58%

Winning margin

South Hobart II wins by 2+
26%
South East Utd. U21 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

South Hobart II 1+ goals
96%
South Hobart II 2+ goals
83%
South Hobart II 3+ goals
61%
South East Utd. U21 1+ goals
96%
South East Utd. U21 2+ goals
82%
South East Utd. U21 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

South Hobart II (draw refunded)
51%
South East Utd. U21 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
90%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Hobart II at home — creates 4.00, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

South East Utd. U21 away — creates 4.29, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Hobart II attack 4.00 + South East Utd. U21 defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 3.24

South East Utd. U21 attack 4.29 + South Hobart II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

South Hobart II scores more
42%
level
18%
South East Utd. U21 scores more
41%

South Hobart II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "South Hobart II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Hobart II 5 – 5 South East Utd. U21

South Hobart II and South East Utd. U21 drew 5-5 in Tasmania Southern Championship on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Darcy Street Ground in South Hobart.