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South East Utd. U21 vs Hobart Utd. — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

South East Utd. U21
South East Utd. U21
FT
3 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Hobart Utd.
Hobart Utd.
5/3/2026Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

South East Utd. U2173%
×Draw13%
Hobart Utd.15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South East Utd. U21
4.26
Hobart Utd.
2.00

South East Utd. U21 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

South East Utd. U21
5.13
Hobart Utd.
2.43

allows per match

South East Utd. U21
1.58
Hobart Utd.
3.39

finishing

South East Utd. U21+0.00on par
Hobart Utd.+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South East Utd. U21 ↓

Hobart Utd. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

South East Utd. U21 or draw
85%
South East Utd. U21 or Hobart Utd.
87%
Draw or Hobart Utd.
27%

Winning margin

South East Utd. U21 wins by 2+
55%
Hobart Utd. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

South East Utd. U21 1+ goals
98%
South East Utd. U21 2+ goals
91%
South East Utd. U21 3+ goals
76%
Hobart Utd. 1+ goals
86%
Hobart Utd. 2+ goals
59%
Hobart Utd. 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

South East Utd. U21 (draw refunded)
83%
Hobart Utd. (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South East Utd. U21 at home — creates 5.13, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

Hobart Utd. away — creates 2.43, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South East Utd. U21 attack 5.13 + Hobart Utd. defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 4.26

Hobart Utd. attack 2.43 + South East Utd. U21 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

South East Utd. U21 scores more
73%
level
13%
Hobart Utd. scores more
15%

South East Utd. U21 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "South East Utd. U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Southern Championship: South East Utd. U21 3–6 Hobart Utd.

Hobart Utd. beat South East Utd. U21 6-3 in Tasmania Southern Championship on May 3, 2026.