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South Cardiff vs Kahibah — NNSW League 1 2026

South Cardiff
South Cardiff
FT
2 – 1
Kahibah
Kahibah
3/8/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 3Ulinga Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

South Cardiff19%
×Draw18%
Kahibah63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Cardiff
1.33
Kahibah
2.55

Kahibah creates 92% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

creates per match

South Cardiff
1.29
Kahibah
2.57

allows per match

South Cardiff
2.54
Kahibah
1.38

finishing

South Cardiff+0.00on par
Kahibah+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Cardiff ↓

Kahibah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

South Cardiff or draw
37%
South Cardiff or Kahibah
82%
Draw or Kahibah
81%

Winning margin

South Cardiff wins by 2+
8%
Kahibah wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

South Cardiff 1+ goals
74%
South Cardiff 2+ goals
38%
South Cardiff 3+ goals
15%
Kahibah 1+ goals
92%
Kahibah 2+ goals
72%
Kahibah 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

South Cardiff (draw refunded)
23%
Kahibah (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Cardiff at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.54 · 28 matches

Kahibah away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Cardiff attack 1.29 + Kahibah defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kahibah attack 2.57 + South Cardiff defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

South Cardiff scores more
19%
level
18%
Kahibah scores more
63%

Kahibah at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kahibah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Cardiff vs Kahibah

South Cardiff beat Kahibah 2-1 in NNSW League 1 on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Ulinga Oval in Newcastle.