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South Bend Lions vs Kalamazoo FC — USL League Two 2018

South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
FT
1 – 3
Kalamazoo FC
Kalamazoo FC
6/9/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 22South Bend Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

South Bend Lions34%
×Draw22%
Kalamazoo FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Bend Lions
1.71
Kalamazoo FC
2.00

Kalamazoo FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 40 away

creates per match

South Bend Lions
1.52
Kalamazoo FC
2.33

allows per match

South Bend Lions
1.67
Kalamazoo FC
1.90

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par
Kalamazoo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Kalamazoo FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw
55%
South Bend Lions or Kalamazoo FC
78%
Draw or Kalamazoo FC
66%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+
17%
Kalamazoo FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals
82%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
51%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
24%
Kalamazoo FC 1+ goals
86%
Kalamazoo FC 2+ goals
59%
Kalamazoo FC 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
43%
Kalamazoo FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Kalamazoo FC away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Kalamazoo FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kalamazoo FC attack 2.33 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

South Bend Lions scores more
34%
level
22%
Kalamazoo FC scores more
45%

Kalamazoo FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kalamazoo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Bend Lions vs Kalamazoo FC

Kalamazoo FC beat South Bend Lions 3-1 in USL League Two on June 9, 2021.

The match was played at South Bend Lions Stadium in South Bend, Indiana.