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South Bend Lions vs Flint City Bucks — USL League Two 2018

South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
PST
23:00
Flint City Bucks
Flint City Bucks
6/24/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 39South Bend Lions Stadium (South Bend, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

South Bend Lions26%
×Draw23%
Flint City Bucks51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Bend Lions
1.30
Flint City Bucks
1.89

Flint City Bucks creates 45% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 51 away

creates per match

South Bend Lions
1.52
Flint City Bucks
2.10

allows per match

South Bend Lions
1.67
Flint City Bucks
1.08

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par
Flint City Bucks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Flint City Bucks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw
49%
South Bend Lions or Flint City Bucks
77%
Draw or Flint City Bucks
74%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+
11%
Flint City Bucks wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals
73%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
37%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
14%
Flint City Bucks 1+ goals
85%
Flint City Bucks 2+ goals
56%
Flint City Bucks 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
34%
Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Flint City Bucks away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Flint City Bucks defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.30

Flint City Bucks attack 2.10 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

South Bend Lions scores more
26%
level
23%
Flint City Bucks scores more
51%

Flint City Bucks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Flint City Bucks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: South Bend Lions host Flint City Bucks

June 24, 2020: South Bend Lions take on Flint City Bucks in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

South Bend Lions host Flint City Bucks at South Bend Lions Stadium (South Bend, Indiana).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.