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Flint City Bucks vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2018

Flint City Bucks
Flint City Bucksadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
Unknown 56'
S. Harvey 45+3'
J. Dallman 39'
J. Shannon 90+1'
7/22/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsAtwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flint City Bucks69%
×Draw16%
South Bend Lions14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint City Bucks
2.72
South Bend Lions
1.18

Flint City Bucks creates 131% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 28 away

creates per match

Flint City Bucks
2.80
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Flint City Bucks
0.86
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Flint City Bucks+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint City Bucks ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Flint City Bucks or draw
86%
Flint City Bucks or South Bend Lions
84%
Draw or South Bend Lions
31%

Winning margin

Flint City Bucks wins by 2+
48%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Flint City Bucks 1+ goals
93%
Flint City Bucks 2+ goals
75%
Flint City Bucks 3+ goals
50%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
69%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
33%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)
83%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint City Bucks at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.86 · 49 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint City Bucks attack 2.80 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.72

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Flint City Bucks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Flint City Bucks scores more
69%
level
16%
South Bend Lions scores more
14%

Flint City Bucks at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Flint City Bucks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
J. Dallman
45+3'
S. Harvey
56'
90+1'
J. Shannon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flint City Bucks 3 – 1 South Bend Lions

Flint City Bucks beat South Bend Lions 3-1 in USL League Two on July 22, 2022.

Goals: J. Dallman (39'), S. Harvey (45+3'), ? (56'), J. Shannon (90+1').

The match was played at Atwood Stadium in Flint, Michigan.