Xayr 1–0 Regar-TadAZ: Result & Stats

Xayr

FT

1 – 0

Regar-TadAZ

9/19/2012

Vysshaya Liga · Round 16Stadion im. Safarbeka Karimova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Xayr45%

×Draw31%

Regar-TadAZ23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XayrExpected goals in this matchRegar-TadAZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.73

Xayr

1.14

Regar-TadAZ

0.73

Xayr creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 41 away

1.27

creates per match

1.10

0.36

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Xayr

1.27

Regar-TadAZ

1.10

allows per match

Xayr

0.36

Regar-TadAZ

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xayr+0.00on par

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xayr ↓

Regar-TadAZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Xayr or draw

77%

Xayr or Regar-TadAZ

69%

Draw or Regar-TadAZ

55%

Winning margin

Xayr wins by 2+

19%

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Xayr 1+ goals

68%

Xayr 2+ goals

32%

Xayr 3+ goals

11%

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

52%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

17%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Xayr (draw refunded)

66%

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xayr at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xayr attack 1.27 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.10 + Xayr defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Xayr scores more

45%

level

31%

Regar-TadAZ scores more

23%

Xayr at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Xayr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff