Regar-TadAZ 5–1 Xayr: Result & Stats

Regar-TadAZ

FT

5 – 1

Xayr

9/17/2016

Vysshaya Liga · Round 14TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Regar-TadAZ47%

×Draw24%

Xayr29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Regar-TadAZExpected goals in this matchXayr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.26

Regar-TadAZ

1.67

Xayr

1.26

Regar-TadAZ creates 33% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

1.47

creates per match

1.43

1.09

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ

1.47

Xayr

1.43

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ

1.09

Xayr

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Xayr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Xayr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw

71%

Regar-TadAZ or Xayr

76%

Draw or Xayr

53%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

25%

Xayr wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

81%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

50%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

23%

Xayr 1+ goals

72%

Xayr 2+ goals

36%

Xayr 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

62%

Xayr (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Xayr away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.47 + Xayr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Xayr attack 1.43 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more

47%

level

24%

Xayr scores more

29%

Regar-TadAZ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff