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Xayr vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Xayr
Xayr
FT
2 – 0
Khatlon
Khatlon
5/17/2015Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 6Stadion im. Safarbeka Karimova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Xayr46%
×Draw29%
Khatlon25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xayr
1.23
Khatlon
0.83

Xayr creates 48% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 39 away

creates per match

Xayr
1.24
Khatlon
1.05

allows per match

Xayr
0.62
Khatlon
1.23

finishing

Xayr+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xayr ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Xayr or draw
75%
Xayr or Khatlon
71%
Draw or Khatlon
54%

Winning margin

Xayr wins by 2+
20%
Khatlon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Xayr 1+ goals
71%
Xayr 2+ goals
35%
Xayr 3+ goals
13%
Khatlon 1+ goals
56%
Khatlon 2+ goals
20%
Khatlon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Xayr (draw refunded)
65%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xayr at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Khatlon away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xayr attack 1.24 + Khatlon defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Khatlon attack 1.05 + Xayr defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Xayr scores more
46%
level
29%
Khatlon scores more
25%

Xayr at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Xayr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xayr 2 – 0 Khatlon

Xayr beat Khatlon 2-0 in Vysshaya Liga on May 17, 2015.

The match was played at Stadion im. Safarbeka Karimova in Khuroson.