South Africa W 2–1 Malawi W: Result & Stats

South Africa W

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Malawi W

A. Motau 86'

H. Magaia 75'

V. Chikupira 58'

4/8/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesLucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

South Africa W60%

×Draw21%

Malawi W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Africa WExpected goals in this matchMalawi W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.10

South Africa W

2.08

Malawi W

1.10

South Africa W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.71

creates per match

0.91

1.29

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

South Africa W

1.71

Malawi W

0.91

allows per match

South Africa W

1.29

Malawi W

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Africa W+0.00on par

Malawi W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa W ↓

Malawi W →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

South Africa W or draw

81%

South Africa W or Malawi W

79%

Draw or Malawi W

40%

Winning margin

South Africa W wins by 2+

36%

Malawi W wins by 2+

Team goals

South Africa W 1+ goals

87%

South Africa W 2+ goals

61%

South Africa W 3+ goals

34%

Malawi W 1+ goals

67%

Malawi W 2+ goals

30%

Malawi W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

South Africa W (draw refunded)

75%

Malawi W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

South Africa W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Malawi W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

South Africa W attack 1.71 + Malawi W defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.08

Malawi W attack 0.91 + South Africa W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

South Africa W scores more

60%

level

21%

Malawi W scores more

19%

South Africa W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "South Africa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

H. Magaia← A. Mibe

46'

T. Kgatlana← K. Mohlakoana

55'

N. Mthandi← N. Nyandeni

58'

V. Chikupira

63'

C. Banda← F. Magombo

63'

J. Yosefe← S. Thom

64'

66'

75'

H. Magaia

86'

A. Motau

South

Malawi

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Desiree Ellis

46'▲H. Magaia←▼A. Mibe

46'▲T. Kgatlana←▼K. Mohlakoana

55'▲N. Mthandi←▼N. Nyandeni

South Africa W substitutes

CesaneMagaiaKgatlanaSelanaMthandiHollisDhlaminiO'MalleyMhlongoGordon

63'▲C. Banda←▼F. Magombo

63'▲J. Yosefe←▼S. Thom

Malawi W substitutes

2Umali3Mchochoma6Mkandawire7Banda10Yosefe11Jumbo12Kapanda14Chavula16Kaonga17Phikani19Mathyola23Sibande

Friendlies Women: South Africa W 2–1 Malawi W

South Africa W beat Malawi W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on April 8, 2025.

Goals: V. Chikupira (58'), H. Magaia (75'), A. Motau (86').

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria.

South Africa W vs Malawi W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: South Africa W 2–1 Malawi W