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South Africa W vs Lesotho W — Friendlies Women 2026

South Africa W
South Africa W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lesotho W
Lesotho W
N. Mdelwa 50' (pen)
2/22/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · FriendliesUJ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

South Africa W64%
×Draw21%
Lesotho W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Africa W
1.98
Lesotho W
0.83

South Africa W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

South Africa W
1.71
Lesotho W
0.38

allows per match

South Africa W
1.29
Lesotho W
2.25

finishing

South Africa W+0.00on par
Lesotho W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa W ↓

Lesotho W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

South Africa W or draw
85%
South Africa W or Lesotho W
79%
Draw or Lesotho W
36%

Winning margin

South Africa W wins by 2+
39%
Lesotho W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

South Africa W 1+ goals
86%
South Africa W 2+ goals
59%
South Africa W 3+ goals
31%
Lesotho W 1+ goals
56%
Lesotho W 2+ goals
20%
Lesotho W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

South Africa W (draw refunded)
81%
Lesotho W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Lesotho W away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa W attack 1.71 + Lesotho W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Lesotho W attack 0.38 + South Africa W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

South Africa W scores more
64%
level
21%
Lesotho W scores more
15%

South Africa W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "South Africa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
N. MdelwaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Africa W vs Lesotho W

South Africa W beat Lesotho W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on February 22, 2025.

Goals: N. Mdelwa (50' pen).

The match was played at UJ Stadium in Johannesburg.