South Africa W 3–2 Italy W: Result & Stats

South Africa W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Italy W

T. Kgatlana 90+2'

H. Magaia 67'

B. Orsi 32' (OG)

A. Caruso 74', 11' (pen)

8/2/2023

World Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3Sky Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Africa W28%

×Draw20%

Italy W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Africa WExpected goals in this matchItaly W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.29

South Africa W

1.63

Italy W

2.29

Italy W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.25

2.33

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

South Africa W

1.00

Italy W

2.25

allows per match

South Africa W

2.33

Italy W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Africa W+0.00on par

Italy W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa W ↓

Italy W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

South Africa W or draw

48%

South Africa W or Italy W

80%

Draw or Italy W

72%

Winning margin

South Africa W wins by 2+

13%

Italy W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

South Africa W 1+ goals

80%

South Africa W 2+ goals

48%

South Africa W 3+ goals

22%

Italy W 1+ goals

90%

Italy W 2+ goals

66%

Italy W 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

South Africa W (draw refunded)

34%

Italy W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Italy W away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa W attack 1.00 + Italy W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Italy W attack 2.25 + South Africa W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

South Africa W scores more

28%

level

20%

Italy W scores more

52%

Italy W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Italy W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

H. Magaia

South Africa W · M

9.2

Match Events

11'

A. CarusoPenalty

32'

B. OrsiOwn goal

46'

N. Kgoale← R. Moodaly

64'

E. Bartoli← L. Di Guglielmo

64'

C. Girelli← B. Bonansea

67'

H. Magaia↳ T. Kgatlana

74'

A. Caruso↳ C. Girelli

84'

S. Cantore← C. Beccari

84'

G. Greggi← A. Caruso

90+5'

T. Makhubela← L. Ramalepe

90+5'

W. Shongwe← H. Magaia

90+15'

S. Holweni← K. Dhlamini

90+10'

B. Glionna← B. Orsi

90+2'

T. Kgatlana↳ H. Magaia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthItaly

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots18

5Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots18

5On Target7

7Off Target4

0Blocked7

7Inside Box14

5Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

273Total Passes458

149Accurate Passes345

55%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Offsides1