South Africa W 2–0 Botswana W: Result & Stats

South Africa W

FT

2 – 0

Botswana W

4/13/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2BidVest Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

South Africa W42%

×Draw25%

Botswana W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Africa WExpected goals in this matchBotswana W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.33

South Africa W

1.51

Botswana W

1.33

South Africa W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

1.38

1.29

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

South Africa W

1.71

Botswana W

1.38

allows per match

South Africa W

1.29

Botswana W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Africa W+0.00on par

Botswana W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa W ↓

Botswana W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

South Africa W or draw

67%

South Africa W or Botswana W

75%

Draw or Botswana W

58%

Winning margin

South Africa W wins by 2+

20%

Botswana W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

South Africa W 1+ goals

78%

South Africa W 2+ goals

44%

South Africa W 3+ goals

19%

Botswana W 1+ goals

74%

Botswana W 2+ goals

38%

Botswana W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

South Africa W (draw refunded)

55%

Botswana W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Botswana W away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa W attack 1.71 + Botswana W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.51

Botswana W attack 1.38 + South Africa W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

South Africa W scores more

42%

level

25%

Botswana W scores more

33%

South Africa W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "South Africa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff