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South Africa vs Panama — Friendlies 2026

South Africa
South Africa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Panama
Panama
O. Appollis 48'
Y. Barcenas 23'
3/27/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalMoses Mabhida Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

South Africa62%
×Draw23%
Panama15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Africa
1.79
Panama
0.74

South Africa creates 142% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

creates per match

South Africa
1.37
Panama
0.80

allows per match

South Africa
0.68
Panama
2.20

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par
Panama+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Panama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

South Africa or draw
85%
South Africa or Panama
77%
Draw or Panama
38%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+
36%
Panama wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals
83%
South Africa 2+ goals
53%
South Africa 3+ goals
26%
Panama 1+ goals
52%
Panama 2+ goals
17%
Panama 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)
81%
Panama (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Panama away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.37 + Panama defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Panama attack 0.80 + South Africa defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

South Africa scores more
62%
level
23%
Panama scores more
15%

South Africa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
O. AppollisSouth AfricaSouth Africa · M
8.5

Match Events

23'
Y. Barcenas↳ C. Waterman
26'
Tshepang Moremi
42'
O. Mosquera← L. Mejia
45+5'
Martín Krug
46'
J. Gutierrez← E. Davis
48'
O. Appollis↳ K. Mudau
60'
J. Adams← S. Sithole
60'
R. Mofokeng← T. Zwane
65'
J. Fajardo← C. Waterman
66'
A. Godoy← M. Krug
71'
T. Mbatha← T. Mokoena
72'
E. Makgopa← L. Foster
74'
A. Andrade← C. Martinez
74'
A. Carrasquilla← R. Miller
83'
S. Kabini← K. Mudau
83'
T. Matuludi← A. Modiba
90+2'
José Fajardo

Possession

64%South

Shots

12South

Pass accuracy

52%South

Statistics

SouthPanama
Overview
64%Possession36%
12Total Shots3
5Corners1
12Fouls3
Shots
12Total Shots3
5On Target2
6Off Target1
1Blocked0
7Inside Box2
5Outside Box1
Passing
64%Possession36%
587Total Passes332
515Accurate Passes266
88%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls3
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides5

Friendlies: South Africa 1–1 Panama

South Africa and Panama drew 1-1 in Friendlies on March 27, 2026.

Goals: Y. Barcenas (23'), O. Appollis (48').

South Africa controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 3.

The match was played at Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban.