Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

South Africa vs Namibia — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

South Africa
South Africa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Namibia
Namibia
1/21/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Amadou Gon Coulibaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

South Africa68%
×Draw22%
Namibia11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Africa
1.77
Namibia
0.53

South Africa creates 234% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

South Africa
1.67
Namibia
0.50

allows per match

South Africa
0.56
Namibia
1.88

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par
Namibia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Namibia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

South Africa or draw
89%
South Africa or Namibia
78%
Draw or Namibia
32%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+
40%
Namibia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals
83%
South Africa 2+ goals
53%
South Africa 3+ goals
26%
Namibia 1+ goals
41%
Namibia 2+ goals
10%
Namibia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)
87%
Namibia (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Namibia away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.67 + Namibia defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Namibia attack 0.50 + South Africa defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

South Africa scores more
68%
level
22%
Namibia scores more
11%

South Africa at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Africa vs Namibia

South Africa beat Namibia 4-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Amadou Gon Coulibaly in Korhogo.