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South Africa vs Libya — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

South Africa
South Africa
FT
0 – 0
Libya
Libya
9/8/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Moses Mabhida Stadium (Durban)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Africa40%
×Draw23%
Libya37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Africa
1.67
Libya
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

South Africa
1.67
Libya
2.67

allows per match

South Africa
0.56
Libya
1.67

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par
Libya+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Libya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

South Africa or draw
63%
South Africa or Libya
77%
Draw or Libya
60%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+
20%
Libya wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals
81%
South Africa 2+ goals
50%
South Africa 3+ goals
23%
Libya 1+ goals
80%
Libya 2+ goals
48%
Libya 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)
52%
Libya (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Libya away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.67 + Libya defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Libya attack 2.67 + South Africa defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

South Africa scores more
40%
level
23%
Libya scores more
37%

South Africa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: South Africa 0–0 Libya

South Africa and Libya drew 0-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Moses Mabhida Stadium (Durban).