South Africa 0–0 Lesotho: Result & Stats

South Africa

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lesotho

1/10/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

South Africa56%

×Draw27%

Lesotho17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South AfricaExpected goals in this matchLesotho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.66

South Africa

1.46

Lesotho

0.66

South Africa creates 121% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

0.64

0.68

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

South Africa

1.37

Lesotho

0.64

allows per match

South Africa

0.68

Lesotho

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par

Lesotho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Lesotho →

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

South Africa or draw

83%

South Africa or Lesotho

73%

Draw or Lesotho

44%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+

29%

Lesotho wins by 2+

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals

77%

South Africa 2+ goals

43%

South Africa 3+ goals

18%

Lesotho 1+ goals

48%

Lesotho 2+ goals

14%

Lesotho 3+ goals

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)

77%

Lesotho (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Lesotho away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.37 + Lesotho defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lesotho attack 0.64 + South Africa defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

South Africa scores more

56%

level

27%

Lesotho scores more

17%

South Africa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff