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South Africa vs Congo DR — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

South Africa
South Africa
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Congo DR
Congo DR
2/10/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · 3rd Place FinalStade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

South Africa44%
×Draw29%
Congo DR26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Africa
1.23
Congo DR
0.88

South Africa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

South Africa
1.67
Congo DR
1.20

allows per match

South Africa
0.56
Congo DR
0.80

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par
Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Congo DR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

South Africa or draw
74%
South Africa or Congo DR
71%
Draw or Congo DR
56%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+
20%
Congo DR wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals
71%
South Africa 2+ goals
35%
South Africa 3+ goals
13%
Congo DR 1+ goals
59%
Congo DR 2+ goals
22%
Congo DR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)
63%
Congo DR (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Congo DR away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 1.67 + Congo DR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Congo DR attack 1.20 + South Africa defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

South Africa scores more
44%
level
29%
Congo DR scores more
26%

South Africa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: South Africa 0–0 Congo DR

South Africa and Congo DR drew 0-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny in Abidjan.