Qingdao Huanghai 4–2 Dalian Transcendence

Qingdao Huanghai

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Dalian Transcendence

3/11/2018

League One · Round 1GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai64%

×Draw20%

Dalian Transcendence16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao HuanghaiExpected goals in this matchDalian Transcendence

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.93

Qingdao Huanghai

2.08

Dalian Transcendence

0.93

Qingdao Huanghai creates 124% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

2.15

creates per match

0.80

1.06

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai

2.15

Dalian Transcendence

0.80

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai

1.06

Dalian Transcendence

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Dalian Transcendence →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw

84%

Qingdao Huanghai or Dalian Transcendence

80%

Draw or Dalian Transcendence

36%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

40%

Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

87%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

61%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

34%

Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals

61%

Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals

24%

Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

80%

Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.80 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

64%

level

20%

Dalian Transcendence scores more

16%

Qingdao Huanghai at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff