Zhejiang Yiteng 2–3 Wuhan Zall: Result & Stats

Zhejiang Yiteng

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Wuhan Zall

3/18/2018

League One · Round 2Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zhejiang Yiteng37%

×Draw24%

Wuhan Zall39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zhejiang YitengExpected goals in this matchWuhan Zall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.56

Zhejiang Yiteng

1.53

Wuhan Zall

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.07

creates per match

1.73

1.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Zhejiang Yiteng

2.07

Wuhan Zall

1.73

allows per match

Zhejiang Yiteng

1.40

Wuhan Zall

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhejiang Yiteng ↓

Wuhan Zall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zhejiang Yiteng or draw

61%

Zhejiang Yiteng or Wuhan Zall

76%

Draw or Wuhan Zall

63%

Winning margin

Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+

18%

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals

78%

Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals

45%

Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals

20%

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

79%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

46%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)

49%

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhejiang Yiteng at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 2.07 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Wuhan Zall attack 1.73 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zhejiang Yiteng scores more

37%

level

24%

Wuhan Zall scores more

39%

Wuhan Zall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff