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South Africa U17 W vs Chile U17 W — Friendlies Women 2026

South Africa U17 W
South Africa U17 W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chile U17 W
Chile U17 W
A. Marcora 10'
G. Mardones 83'
A. Farias 3'
1/28/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Africa U17 W6%
×Draw12%
Chile U17 W82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Africa U17 W
0.58
Chile U17 W
2.75

Chile U17 W creates 374% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

South Africa U17 W
0.67
Chile U17 W
3.50

allows per match

South Africa U17 W
2.00
Chile U17 W
0.50

finishing

South Africa U17 W+0.00on par
Chile U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa U17 W ↓

Chile U17 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–214%
0–313%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

South Africa U17 W or draw
18%
South Africa U17 W or Chile U17 W
88%
Draw or Chile U17 W
94%

Winning margin

South Africa U17 W wins by 2+
1%
Chile U17 W wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

South Africa U17 W 1+ goals
44%
South Africa U17 W 2+ goals
12%
South Africa U17 W 3+ goals
2%
Chile U17 W 1+ goals
93%
Chile U17 W 2+ goals
75%
Chile U17 W 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

South Africa U17 W (draw refunded)
6%
Chile U17 W (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa U17 W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Chile U17 W away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa U17 W attack 0.67 + Chile U17 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Chile U17 W attack 3.50 + South Africa U17 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

South Africa U17 W scores more
6%
level
12%
Chile U17 W scores more
82%

Chile U17 W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Chile U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Farias
10'
A. Marcora
83'
G. Mardones

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Africa U17 W vs Chile U17 W

Chile U17 W beat South Africa U17 W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on January 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Farias (3'), A. Marcora (10'), G. Mardones (83').