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South Africa U17 W vs Argentina U17 W — Friendlies Women 2026

South Africa U17 W
South Africa U17 W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Argentina U17 W
Argentina U17 W
P. Morena 80'
O. Bralo 9'
3/29/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Africa U17 W12%
×Draw22%
Argentina U17 W66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Africa U17 W
0.58
Argentina U17 W
1.75

Argentina U17 W creates 202% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

South Africa U17 W
0.67
Argentina U17 W
1.50

allows per match

South Africa U17 W
2.00
Argentina U17 W
0.50

finishing

South Africa U17 W+0.00on par
Argentina U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa U17 W ↓

Argentina U17 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–117%
0–215%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

South Africa U17 W or draw
34%
South Africa U17 W or Argentina U17 W
78%
Draw or Argentina U17 W
88%

Winning margin

South Africa U17 W wins by 2+
3%
Argentina U17 W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

South Africa U17 W 1+ goals
44%
South Africa U17 W 2+ goals
12%
South Africa U17 W 3+ goals
2%
Argentina U17 W 1+ goals
83%
Argentina U17 W 2+ goals
52%
Argentina U17 W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

South Africa U17 W (draw refunded)
15%
Argentina U17 W (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa U17 W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Argentina U17 W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa U17 W attack 0.67 + Argentina U17 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Argentina U17 W attack 1.50 + South Africa U17 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

South Africa U17 W scores more
12%
level
22%
Argentina U17 W scores more
66%

Argentina U17 W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Argentina U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
O. Bralo
80'
P. Morena

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: South Africa U17 W 1–2 Argentina U17 W

Argentina U17 W beat South Africa U17 W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on March 29, 2026.

Goals: O. Bralo (9'), P. Morena (80').