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Sousa vs Falcon — Serie D 2018

Sousa
Sousaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Falcon
Falcon
8/6/2023Serie DSerie D · Round of 32Estádio Governador Antônio Mariz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sousa47%
×Draw26%
Falcon27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sousa
1.48
Falcon
1.05

Sousa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sousa
1.45
Falcon
1.25

allows per match

Sousa
0.86
Falcon
1.50

finishing

Sousa+0.00on par
Falcon+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sousa ↓

Falcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sousa or draw
73%
Sousa or Falcon
74%
Draw or Falcon
53%

Winning margin

Sousa wins by 2+
23%
Falcon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sousa 1+ goals
77%
Sousa 2+ goals
43%
Sousa 3+ goals
19%
Falcon 1+ goals
65%
Falcon 2+ goals
28%
Falcon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sousa (draw refunded)
64%
Falcon (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sousa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Falcon away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sousa attack 1.45 + Falcon defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Falcon attack 1.25 + Sousa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sousa scores more
47%
level
26%
Falcon scores more
27%

Sousa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sousa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sousa 2 – 1 Falcon

Sousa beat Falcon 2-1 in Serie D on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Antônio Mariz in Sousa, Paraíba.