Sousa 4–1 Confiança: Result & Stats

Sousa

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Confiança

Felipe Jacare 90'

Diego Viana 74'

Everton Heleno 25', 20'

Eduardo Moura 45'

3/26/2026

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sousa56%

×Draw24%

Confiança20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SousaExpected goals in this matchConfiança

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.93

Sousa

1.73

Confiança

0.93

Sousa creates 86% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

2.27

creates per match

0.95

0.91

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sousa

2.27

Confiança

0.95

allows per match

Sousa

0.91

Confiança

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sousa+0.00on par

Confiança+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sousa ↓

Confiança →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sousa or draw

80%

Sousa or Confiança

76%

Draw or Confiança

44%

Winning margin

Sousa wins by 2+

31%

Confiança wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sousa 1+ goals

82%

Sousa 2+ goals

52%

Sousa 3+ goals

25%

Confiança 1+ goals

61%

Confiança 2+ goals

24%

Confiança 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sousa (draw refunded)

74%

Confiança (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sousa at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Confiança away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sousa attack 2.27 + Confiança defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Confiança attack 0.95 + Sousa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sousa scores more

56%

level

24%

Confiança scores more

20%

Sousa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sousa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Everton Heleno

25'

Everton Heleno

41'

Danielzinho

45+5'

Alessandro Telles

45'

Eduardo Moura

55'

Hebert← Gianlucas

60'

Kiko← Veraldo

60'

Joao Pedro← Danielzinho

60'

Andrey Quintino← Iago

62'

Gustavo Nicola← Lorran

62'

70'

74'

90+6'

90+1'

Felipe Jacare← Diego Viana

90+1'

Matheus Bambu← Luis Henrique

90+2'

Fabricio← Renilson

90'

Felipe Jacare

Sousa

Confiança

1

Pascoal

2

Junior

3

Cunha

4

⚽

Moura

13

▼

Renilson

6

Kelvyn

7

▼

Danielzin

8

▼

Lorran

10

Wendel

11

▼

Iago

99

▼

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

⚽

▼

Viana

10

▼

Gianlucas

11

▼

Henrique

17

⚽2

Heleno

25

▼

Veraldo

Manager: Telles Alessandro

55'▲Hebert←▼Gianlucas

60'▲Kiko←▼Veraldo

90+1'▲Felipe Jacare←▼Diego Viana

90+1'▲Matheus Bambu←▼Luis Henrique

Sousa substitutes

22Gabriel26Souza5Hebert9Bambam14Kiko15Abraao16Jacare18Natalicio19Bambu20Pedro21Estevan23Lisboa

Manager: Claudio Cacapa

60'▲Joao Pedro←▼Danielzinho

60'▲Andrey Quintino←▼Iago

62'▲Gustavo Nicola←▼Lorran

62'▲Maikon Aquino←▼Sassa

90+2'▲Fabricio←▼Renilson

Confiança substitutes

12Silva5Nicola9Aquino14Mandovani15Marcelo16Weriton17Fabricio18Ludke19Pedro21Quintino30Fernandes

Copa do Nordeste: Sousa 4–1 Confiança

Sousa beat Confiança 4-1 in Copa do Nordeste on March 26, 2026.

Goals: Everton Heleno (20', 25'), Eduardo Moura (45'), Diego Viana (74'), Felipe Jacare (90').

Sousa vs Confiança — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa do Nordeste: Sousa 4–1 Confiança