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Sotra vs Senja — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Sotra
Sotra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Senja
Senja
10/6/20192. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 23Straume stadion (Sotra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sotra63%
×Draw21%
Senja16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sotra
2.04
Senja
0.91

Sotra creates 124% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sotra
1.71
Senja
0.77

allows per match

Sotra
1.04
Senja
2.38

finishing

Sotra+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sotra ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sotra or draw
84%
Sotra or Senja
79%
Draw or Senja
37%

Winning margin

Sotra wins by 2+
39%
Senja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sotra 1+ goals
87%
Sotra 2+ goals
60%
Sotra 3+ goals
33%
Senja 1+ goals
60%
Senja 2+ goals
23%
Senja 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sotra (draw refunded)
80%
Senja (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sotra at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

Senja away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sotra attack 1.71 + Senja defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.04

Senja attack 0.77 + Sotra defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sotra scores more
63%
level
21%
Senja scores more
16%

Sotra at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sotra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Sotra 0–1 Senja

Senja beat Sotra 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Straume stadion (Sotra).