Sotra 3–0 Mjølner: Result & Stats

Sotra

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Mjølner

6/5/2019

2. Division - Group 2 · Round 3Straume stadion (Sotra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sotra62%

×Draw20%

Mjølner18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SotraExpected goals in this matchMjølner

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.09

Sotra

2.20

Mjølner

1.09

Sotra creates 102% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

1.15

1.04

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Sotra

1.71

Mjølner

1.15

allows per match

Sotra

1.04

Mjølner

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sotra+0.00on par

Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sotra ↓

Mjølner →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sotra or draw

82%

Sotra or Mjølner

80%

Draw or Mjølner

38%

Winning margin

Sotra wins by 2+

39%

Mjølner wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sotra 1+ goals

89%

Sotra 2+ goals

64%

Sotra 3+ goals

37%

Mjølner 1+ goals

66%

Mjølner 2+ goals

30%

Mjølner 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sotra (draw refunded)

78%

Mjølner (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sotra at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sotra attack 1.71 + Mjølner defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.20

Mjølner attack 1.15 + Sotra defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sotra scores more

62%

level

20%

Mjølner scores more

18%

Sotra at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sotra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff