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Sotra vs Gjøvik-Lyn — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Sotra
Sotra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gjøvik-Lyn
Gjøvik-Lyn
11/11/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Straume stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sotra64%
×Draw20%
Gjøvik-Lyn16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sotra
2.19
Gjøvik-Lyn
1.00

Sotra creates 119% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sotra
1.71
Gjøvik-Lyn
0.97

allows per match

Sotra
1.04
Gjøvik-Lyn
2.67

finishing

Sotra+0.00on par
Gjøvik-Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sotra ↓

Gjøvik-Lyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sotra or draw
84%
Sotra or Gjøvik-Lyn
80%
Draw or Gjøvik-Lyn
36%

Winning margin

Sotra wins by 2+
41%
Gjøvik-Lyn wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sotra 1+ goals
89%
Sotra 2+ goals
64%
Sotra 3+ goals
37%
Gjøvik-Lyn 1+ goals
63%
Gjøvik-Lyn 2+ goals
26%
Gjøvik-Lyn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sotra (draw refunded)
80%
Gjøvik-Lyn (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sotra at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

Gjøvik-Lyn away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.67 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sotra attack 1.71 + Gjøvik-Lyn defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.19

Gjøvik-Lyn attack 0.97 + Sotra defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sotra scores more
64%
level
20%
Gjøvik-Lyn scores more
16%

Sotra at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sotra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Sotra 1–0 Gjøvik-Lyn

Sotra beat Gjøvik-Lyn 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Straume stadion in Sotra.