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Sortland vs KFUM II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Sortland
Sortland
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
KFUM II
KFUM II
J. Berg 72'
M. Abelsen 63' (pen)
P. E. Karlsen 15'
P. Degnes 77'
A. Ans 57'
S. Halvorsen 18'
9/14/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 20Blåbyhallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sortland31%
×Draw19%
KFUM II49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sortland
1.97
KFUM II
2.48

KFUM II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sortland
1.31
KFUM II
1.95

allows per match

Sortland
3.00
KFUM II
2.63

finishing

Sortland+0.00on par
KFUM II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sortland ↓

KFUM II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sortland or draw
51%
Sortland or KFUM II
81%
Draw or KFUM II
69%

Winning margin

Sortland wins by 2+
16%
KFUM II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Sortland 1+ goals
86%
Sortland 2+ goals
58%
Sortland 3+ goals
31%
KFUM II 1+ goals
92%
KFUM II 2+ goals
70%
KFUM II 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Sortland (draw refunded)
39%
KFUM II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sortland at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

KFUM II away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sortland attack 1.31 + KFUM II defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.97

KFUM II attack 1.95 + Sortland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sortland scores more
31%
level
19%
KFUM II scores more
49%

KFUM II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KFUM II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
P. E. Karlsen
18'
S. Halvorsen
57'
A. Ans
63'
M. AbelsenPenalty
72'
J. Berg
77'
P. Degnes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sortland vs KFUM II

Sortland and KFUM II drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 14, 2025.

Goals: P. E. Karlsen (15'), S. Halvorsen (18'), A. Ans (57'), M. Abelsen (63' pen), J. Berg (72'), P. Degnes (77').

The match was played at Blåbyhallen in Sortland.