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Sortland vs Harstad — 3. Division - Girone 1 2022

Sortland
Sortland
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Harstad
Harstad
F. Lindquist 85' (pen)
U. R. Celius 59'
N. Johnsen 39'
T. Gjerde 9'
10/18/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 25Blåbyhallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sortland22%
×Draw18%
Harstad61%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sortland
1.66
Harstad
2.81

Harstad creates 69% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sortland
1.31
Harstad
2.62

allows per match

Sortland
3.00
Harstad
2.00

finishing

Sortland+0.00on par
Harstad+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sortland ↓

Harstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sortland or draw
39%
Sortland or Harstad
82%
Draw or Harstad
78%

Winning margin

Sortland wins by 2+
10%
Harstad wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Sortland 1+ goals
81%
Sortland 2+ goals
49%
Sortland 3+ goals
23%
Harstad 1+ goals
94%
Harstad 2+ goals
76%
Harstad 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Sortland (draw refunded)
26%
Harstad (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sortland at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Harstad away — creates 2.62, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sortland attack 1.31 + Harstad defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Harstad attack 2.62 + Sortland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sortland scores more
22%
level
18%
Harstad scores more
61%

Harstad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Harstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
T. Gjerde
39'
N. Johnsen
59'
U. R. Celius
85'
F. LindquistPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sortland vs Harstad

Harstad beat Sortland 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 18, 2025.

Goals: T. Gjerde (9'), N. Johnsen (39'), U. R. Celius (59'), F. Lindquist (85' pen).

The match was played at Blåbyhallen in Sortland.