Sortland 1–7 Fløya: Result & Stats

Sortland

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

Fløya

8/16/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 16Blåbyhallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sortland30%

×Draw19%

Fløya52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SortlandExpected goals in this matchFløya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

2.69

Sortland

2.04

Fløya

2.69

Fløya creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.31

creates per match

2.38

3.00

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Sortland

1.31

Fløya

2.38

allows per match

Sortland

3.00

Fløya

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sortland+0.00on par

Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sortland ↓

Fløya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Sortland or draw

48%

Sortland or Fløya

81%

Draw or Fløya

70%

Winning margin

Sortland wins by 2+

15%

Fløya wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Sortland 1+ goals

87%

Sortland 2+ goals

60%

Sortland 3+ goals

33%

Fløya 1+ goals

93%

Fløya 2+ goals

74%

Fløya 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Sortland (draw refunded)

37%

Fløya (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sortland at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sortland attack 1.31 + Fløya defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.04

Fløya attack 2.38 + Sortland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sortland scores more

30%

level

19%

Fløya scores more

52%

Fløya at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff