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Sortland vs Bærum — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Sortland
Sortland
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Bærum
Bærum
7/12/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 14Skreia ipl kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sortland18%
×Draw17%
Bærum65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sortland
1.45
Bærum
2.84

Bærum creates 96% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sortland
1.31
Bærum
2.68

allows per match

Sortland
3.00
Bærum
1.58

finishing

Sortland+0.00on par
Bærum+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sortland ↓

Bærum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Sortland or draw
35%
Sortland or Bærum
83%
Draw or Bærum
82%

Winning margin

Sortland wins by 2+
7%
Bærum wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Sortland 1+ goals
77%
Sortland 2+ goals
42%
Sortland 3+ goals
18%
Bærum 1+ goals
94%
Bærum 2+ goals
77%
Bærum 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Sortland (draw refunded)
21%
Bærum (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sortland at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Bærum away — creates 2.68, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sortland attack 1.31 + Bærum defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bærum attack 2.68 + Sortland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sortland scores more
18%
level
17%
Bærum scores more
65%

Bærum at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sortland vs Bærum

Bærum beat Sortland 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at Skreia ipl kunstgress in Skreia.